Тэкс

[grognard]

Завтра на РЖ, скорее всего, будет от меня статья по итогам Пятидневной войны.

Comments

[jetaddicted.livejournal.com]

Он снова отжёг:

Саакашвили объявил в Грузии трехдневный траур.
http://lenta.ru/news/2008/08/12/mourn/

[kurung.livejournal.com]

Весьма любопытно, что он ни в одной речи за последние 5 дней жертвы мирных жителей в Цхинвале а) не считает жертвами б) не учитывает их в сводках погибших по Грузии.

Тут всего два варианта - илил он не считает ю.осетинов людьми, к которым применимо понятие "жертва" или он не считает Ю. Осетию территорией Грузии. Или и то, и другое.

[therealbb.livejournal.com]

Это "промежуточный итог". Теперь осталось только ждать - может месяц, может год, может два. Но прдолжение будет. Мы сделали то что от нас хотели.

[rittter.livejournal.com]

РЖ, что это?

[nick-1.livejournal.com]

"Русский Журнал". Но, как давний читатель Шкипера, могу Вам сказать, что ссылка на статью обязательно будет, и мимо Вас она никак не пройдет.)

[ded-pehto.livejournal.com]

к себе то заперепостиш, надеюсь?

[black-karlos.livejournal.com]

Сделайте открытую концовку в статье. Не факт, что всё кончилось.

[mike-mcmilan.livejournal.com]

http://civil.ge/rus/article.php?id=17282 Какая-то движуха в Поти. Это действительно наши продолжают? Или грызуны делают задел под будущий попил?

[real-shtirlitz.livejournal.com]

учитывыа, что "сообщил надёжный источник"- особого доверия инфа не внушает...

[patetlao.livejournal.com]

53.078 - Даешь сегодня стадион Лужники!

[ex-greasy-r.livejournal.com]

Грузинская армия продолжает сушествовать. Следовательно, государство Грузия продолжает существовать. Россия попытается выиграть дипломатическими перебранками то, чего оне не смогла добиться на поле боя, но ничего не добъется. Время работает на Грузию. Пути снабжения российских войск в Грузии слижком длинны и не обладают достаточной пропускной способностью. Приближающаяся осень эти обстоятельства только ухудшит.

*задумчиво*

[temik319.livejournal.com]

а не пошли бы вы нахуй?

[tarlith-history.livejournal.com]

Что продолжает существовать? не смешите меня

[grun-elefant.livejournal.com]

Грузия пока существует как государство-сателлит США, а не как "государство". Разрушать государственность никто задачи не ставил. Военные действия окончились именно поэтому. Сейчас надо разгребать обломки, чтобы хоть как-то жизнь наладить, а не лозунги орать.

[asharky.livejournal.com]

Что спросить-то хотели?

[hleg.livejournal.com]

Думаю, "есличто", хватит самолетов, кораблей и ракет. От активных разведдействий вроде бы не отказываемся.

[mihangu.livejournal.com]

Предварительный анализ итогов с сайта Stratfor.com - частной аналитической фирмы.

Russia is offering a cease-fire in Georgia on Aug. 12. Russia has achieved its goals — demonstrating its ability to strike, destabilizing the Georgian government and proving the West’s inability to act in the Russian periphery. Furthermore, taking Georgia altogether would cross a line that Russia is not prepared to breach and nearly ensure action by Russia’s foes. But most of all, Russia simply does not want Georgia; Moscow does not want to administer Tbilisi, and it does not want to get involved in another prolonged conflict like that seen in Chechnya.

Analysis
It has been confirmed that Russia is offering the Georgians a cease-fire based on the conditions that Georgia partially demilitarize and return to the borders before the conflict broke out. The question now is: Why did the Russians stop here?

First, look at what Russia has accomplished.

Militarily, Russia has achieved its strategic goal. It has demonstrated its ability to strike. Russia ejected Georgia completely from Abkhazia and South Ossetia and has largely destroyed Georgia’s war-fighting capability — and with talk of “partial demobilization” as a condition for peace, Georgia could be hobbled for quite some time. Russia has also armed the separatists of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which weakens Georgia in the long run even without the Russians there.

Russia’s second goal was to break the Georgian government either by having it turn over or by making it chaotically unstable — either is fine with Moscow. As for Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili, he is most likely politically finished for starting the war and then failing to execute it effectively. He has become the poster boy for leading Georgia into disaster.

Russia has also achieved its third goal of showing the West’s impotence while destroying any meaningful discussion of future Georgian membership in NATO or the European Union. Since the Americans — Tbilisi’s largest political supporters — did not show up to help the Georgians during their hour of need, U.S. influence in the region (and other former Soviet regions) will plummet. Washington simply will not be seen as a reliable guarantee against Russia. And a crushed and unstable Georgia — not to mention one that has been stamped as Russia’s turf — will certainly no longer be seen as a candidate for any Western alliance.

With Russia’s military success and a show of the Americans’ incapability to intervene, Moscow has been playing its Cold War propaganda game in former Soviet states in Central Asia, the rest of the Caucasus, Belarus and most of Ukraine by portraying Russia as a liberator against the Western-backed Georgia’s “aggressions.” The angle that Moscow is back as a real power versus the Americans is playing very well in these countries. Of course, the flip side is that this perception is also playing in the anti-Russian countries of the former Soviet bloc, such as Poland, the Baltics, the Czech Republic and others.

So, with this many successes, why did Russia not conquer all of Georgia?

[mihangu.livejournal.com]

For one thing, all that was left to take was the capital, since the country was already fractured into three pieces and the government ruined.

But if Russia had taken the capital, it would have crossed a line with foes and friends alike. For the foes — the European Union, United States and others — Russia taking all of Georgia would have most likely assured that they would have do something, even if the actions were symbolic, such as sanctions or pulling investments from within Russia. Russia would actually pay attention to this, since it is no longer part of the isolated Soviet Union and is actually hooked into the global economy.

Friends would have also responded if Russia had conquered Georgia directly. For example, many countries, such as China, would have had a hard time offering support to Russia in international institutions like the U.N. Security Council had Russia taken Georgia altogether. If Russia had taken Georgia as a whole, Moscow would also have had trouble with its propaganda efforts because the perception of Russia would change from liberator to aggressor.

But one of the main drivers behind the Russians’ decision to stop before taking all of Georgia is simply the fact that they do not want it. Moscow does not want to be the administrator in Tbilisi; it just wants to tell that administrator what to do. Moreover, if Russia occupies Georgia it would become yet another territory fighting an interminable guerilla war against Russia — and Moscow certainly does not want another Chechnya.

Russia stopped here because it is the perfect place for Russia to hold onto its large successes before turning the situation both in Georgia and internationally into something else completely.

Stopping has given Russia the veneer of legitimacy in its military campaign, while achieving what it mainly sought out to do: break Georgia, make the country unattractive to the West as a candidate to join its alliances, become the hero again in the former Soviet states and show that the United States’ security guarantees were mainly show. Had Russia taken Tbilisi, some of these perceptions would have changed, and further consequences would have evolved. It is only at this point that there was a clear stopping point before the situation took a turn.

[2-kopeiki.livejournal.com]

по итогам Пятидневной войны
Не удержались от сравнений, а? Вообще-то для полной аналогии Грузия должна была захватить Северную Осетию и Краснодарский край :)

[ex-greasy-r.livejournal.com]

Не мешайте патриотам наслаждаться грандиозной победой - 58-ая армия, в одиночку отбросила безоружной Осетии целых три грузинские бригады аж на... 50 километров? Этот подвиг будет греметь в веках.

[cheshader.livejournal.com]

Ну не получилось у них, кто ж теперь виноват? )
Плохо готовили, плохо )

[flinter-ab.livejournal.com]

Не претендуя на соавторство =)
Совсем краткий анализ с листа.
Еща раз спасибо за фактологию.
http://flinter-ab.livejournal.com/109609.html

по зомбоящику(+)

[fio-rio.livejournal.com]

по рустави2 с утра "обсасывают" результаты 6-ти дневной.
показывают документалки иудейские

Победители...

[patetlao.livejournal.com]

И что, ОНИ видят себя в роли ЕВРЕЕВ???

Re: Что за фигня?

[tarlith-history.livejournal.com]

Это сайт дугинских ебанатов.
Они типа "шутят" про войну.

[hleg.livejournal.com]

Ждем сцылку.