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grognard"Joseph R. Wood" <joseph_r._wood@ovp.eop.gov>;
Dear Joe:
Am still in Tbilisi. No dount you are totally informed on the situation. However, some observations and suggestions.
- The destruction of Georgia's military capacity will be ttoal by the time this is over and Moscow will not stop until it has achieved this. While Moscow prevaricates on ceasefires, it is changing the reality on the ground.
- It is very likely that they may then move to attack some parts of civil infrastructure.
- Very unlikely that they will withdraw from the two territories for some time and the push on Zugdidi and Gori are about creating negotiable buffer zones.
- End game is regime change - preferably now, but will live with longer term asphyxiation.
How to resist?
a. Make sure that US is united in resistance to this
b. Drag Europe by the nose
c. Kill the notion that the Georgians started this - the scale and intensity of the Russian attack bear all the hallmarks of a well planned and inevitable operation. To suggest that Georgia started is to agree that Poland caused the Nazi attack on it in 1939.
Dear Joe:
Am still in Tbilisi. No dount you are totally informed on the situation. However, some observations and suggestions.
- The destruction of Georgia's military capacity will be ttoal by the time this is over and Moscow will not stop until it has achieved this. While Moscow prevaricates on ceasefires, it is changing the reality on the ground.
- It is very likely that they may then move to attack some parts of civil infrastructure.
- Very unlikely that they will withdraw from the two territories for some time and the push on Zugdidi and Gori are about creating negotiable buffer zones.
- End game is regime change - preferably now, but will live with longer term asphyxiation.
How to resist?
a. Make sure that US is united in resistance to this
b. Drag Europe by the nose
c. Kill the notion that the Georgians started this - the scale and intensity of the Russian attack bear all the hallmarks of a well planned and inevitable operation. To suggest that Georgia started is to agree that Poland caused the Nazi attack on it in 1939.
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no subject
Date: 2008-08-11 08:13 pm (UTC)