Тэкс

[grognard]

Завтра на РЖ, скорее всего, будет от меня статья по итогам Пятидневной войны.

Comments

[jetaddicted.livejournal.com]

Он снова отжёг:

Саакашвили объявил в Грузии трехдневный траур.
http://lenta.ru/news/2008/08/12/mourn/

[rittter.livejournal.com]

РЖ, что это?

[ded-pehto.livejournal.com]

к себе то заперепостиш, надеюсь?

[black-karlos.livejournal.com]

Сделайте открытую концовку в статье. Не факт, что всё кончилось.

[mike-mcmilan.livejournal.com]

http://civil.ge/rus/article.php?id=17282 Какая-то движуха в Поти. Это действительно наши продолжают? Или грызуны делают задел под будущий попил?

[patetlao.livejournal.com]

53.078 - Даешь сегодня стадион Лужники!

[ex-greasy-r.livejournal.com]

Грузинская армия продолжает сушествовать. Следовательно, государство Грузия продолжает существовать. Россия попытается выиграть дипломатическими перебранками то, чего оне не смогла добиться на поле боя, но ничего не добъется. Время работает на Грузию. Пути снабжения российских войск в Грузии слижком длинны и не обладают достаточной пропускной способностью. Приближающаяся осень эти обстоятельства только ухудшит.

[mihangu.livejournal.com]

Предварительный анализ итогов с сайта Stratfor.com - частной аналитической фирмы.

Russia is offering a cease-fire in Georgia on Aug. 12. Russia has achieved its goals — demonstrating its ability to strike, destabilizing the Georgian government and proving the West’s inability to act in the Russian periphery. Furthermore, taking Georgia altogether would cross a line that Russia is not prepared to breach and nearly ensure action by Russia’s foes. But most of all, Russia simply does not want Georgia; Moscow does not want to administer Tbilisi, and it does not want to get involved in another prolonged conflict like that seen in Chechnya.

Analysis
It has been confirmed that Russia is offering the Georgians a cease-fire based on the conditions that Georgia partially demilitarize and return to the borders before the conflict broke out. The question now is: Why did the Russians stop here?

First, look at what Russia has accomplished.

Militarily, Russia has achieved its strategic goal. It has demonstrated its ability to strike. Russia ejected Georgia completely from Abkhazia and South Ossetia and has largely destroyed Georgia’s war-fighting capability — and with talk of “partial demobilization” as a condition for peace, Georgia could be hobbled for quite some time. Russia has also armed the separatists of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which weakens Georgia in the long run even without the Russians there.

Russia’s second goal was to break the Georgian government either by having it turn over or by making it chaotically unstable — either is fine with Moscow. As for Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili, he is most likely politically finished for starting the war and then failing to execute it effectively. He has become the poster boy for leading Georgia into disaster.

Russia has also achieved its third goal of showing the West’s impotence while destroying any meaningful discussion of future Georgian membership in NATO or the European Union. Since the Americans — Tbilisi’s largest political supporters — did not show up to help the Georgians during their hour of need, U.S. influence in the region (and other former Soviet regions) will plummet. Washington simply will not be seen as a reliable guarantee against Russia. And a crushed and unstable Georgia — not to mention one that has been stamped as Russia’s turf — will certainly no longer be seen as a candidate for any Western alliance.

With Russia’s military success and a show of the Americans’ incapability to intervene, Moscow has been playing its Cold War propaganda game in former Soviet states in Central Asia, the rest of the Caucasus, Belarus and most of Ukraine by portraying Russia as a liberator against the Western-backed Georgia’s “aggressions.” The angle that Moscow is back as a real power versus the Americans is playing very well in these countries. Of course, the flip side is that this perception is also playing in the anti-Russian countries of the former Soviet bloc, such as Poland, the Baltics, the Czech Republic and others.

So, with this many successes, why did Russia not conquer all of Georgia?

[2-kopeiki.livejournal.com]

по итогам Пятидневной войны
Не удержались от сравнений, а? Вообще-то для полной аналогии Грузия должна была захватить Северную Осетию и Краснодарский край :)

[flinter-ab.livejournal.com]

Не претендуя на соавторство =)
Совсем краткий анализ с листа.
Еща раз спасибо за фактологию.
http://flinter-ab.livejournal.com/109609.html

по зомбоящику(+)

[fio-rio.livejournal.com]

по рустави2 с утра "обсасывают" результаты 6-ти дневной.
показывают документалки иудейские

[hleg.livejournal.com]

Ждем сцылку.